Economy
Break-even job growth, explained: why small payroll gains can coexist with low unemployment
Break-even job growth is the monthly gain in payrolls needed to hold the unemployment rate steady. It has fallen sharply since 2023 as immigration slowed and the workforce aged, so modest hiring no longer pushes unemployment up. Estimates range from near zero to about 87,000 or more, and low unemployment does not by itself mean the job market is healthy.
